The rich are richer than ever, but could a new college football team win the title in 23?

June 14, 2024

Tuesday was a national holiday. It was Blue-Chip Ratio Day. It’s the day we actually get to see the list of teams that can win the national title next season. If you’re not on the list, you’re not winning it all. Plain and simple.

Bud Elliott, a national recruiting analyst at 247Sports, created the blue-chip ratio in 2013 and publishes his findings every offseason. A team’s blue-chip ratio is the percent of four- and five-star prospects on its current roster (scholarship players only). Elliott surmised 10 years ago that a team had to have a blue-chip ratio over 50 percent to have enough talent to win a national championship.

He was right. No program that didn’t meet the blue-chip ratio threshold has won a title. Believe it or not, recruiting results are important. Stars Matter.

The 16 teams that made the cut this year are Alabama (90 percent), Ohio State (85), Georgia (77), Texas A&M (73), Clemson (72), LSU (71), Texas (70), Oklahoma (70), Oregon (67), Notre Dame (65), Florida (64), Miami (61), Penn State (55), Michigan (54), USC (52) and Auburn (51).

🔷🔷 It's Blue-Chip Ratio Day!@BudElliott3's yearly analysis of the college football teams who can *actually* win a national championship.

Here's 2023's exclusive list: https://t.co/eWJ884JaE7 pic.twitter.com/hIrP3MQ65h

— 247Sports (@247Sports) June 6, 2023

One of those 16 teams will be your 2023 national champ. In reality, you could probably cut that list in half because the concentration of talent at the top is so much more lopsided than it has been in the past. Literally 90 percent of the players on Alabama’s roster are blue-chippers. That’s roughly 30 more blue-chip players on the Crimson Tide than the teams on the bottom of the list above, and that doesn’t even take into account that they also probably signed higher quality blue-chippers. For context, the Ohio State team that won the first College Football Playoff in 2014 had a blue-chip ratio of 68 percent. The rich are getting richer with the passing of each year.

If you follow my writing, you may think you have an idea where this column is going. You’re probably thinking that I’m going to dismiss the chances of the bottom 10 teams on this list and focus on the three teams at the top. And, if I were a betting man (wink, wink), I’d probably still bet that this year’s national champion will be either Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia, the only teams above the 75 percent threshold.

But here’s a curveball. It’s time to go against my better judgment — while ignoring that pit in my stomach — and predict this could be the year we finally get some new blood as the national champion despite the lopsided blue-chip ratio numbers. Stick with me here. Of the three heavy favorites to win it, which is a super team? Lets actually focus on their flaws.

• Alabama: This is a program that just signed a recruiting class consisting of nine five-star prospects. It’s the first team to have a 90 percent blue-chip ratio. And still, Alabama was searching for a quarterback after spring practice — the Tide signed Tyler Buchner from Notre Dame — despite having nothing but blue-chippers at the position on its current roster. Makes you wonder.

• Ohio State: You could make the case that the Buckeyes were a field goal away from winning a national title last year despite not having an absolute defensive stud on their roster. That was actually the second consecutive year in which Ohio State didn’t have a defensive star, and it didn’t necessarily light up its 2023 class with defensive star power. There are young candidates to break out this year — C.J. Hicks and J.T. Tuimoloau, for example — but this is a program that’s been blown out by its rival in each of the last two years. Oh, we also don’t know who the Buckeyes quarterback is going to be.

• Georgia: Like Alabama and Ohio State, Georgia will have a new starting quarterback this year. The Bulldogs have won the last two national titles, and Carson Beck reportedly looked awesome in the spring running the offense. So you may just assume Georgia is poised to win it again. Maybe that’s a safe bet because the Bulldogs’ schedule is soft this year, too. But keep in mind that Georgia’s blue-chip ratio (77 percent) is considerably behind Alabama and Ohio State’s. If anyone can seamlessly replace its talent, it’s Georgia. But it’s still a tough ask to expect the Bulldogs to three-peat after replacing Stetson Bennett, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Kenny McIntosh, Kelee Ringo, Darnell Washington and four other draft picks.

If you’re rolling your eyes at this nit-picking, that’s fair. It was hard to type some of that. I may have even convinced myself that Georgia is going to win it all again. But … gulp. Doesn’t the door seem like it could be open for some new blood? Consider these questions:

What if Quinn Ewers turns into a top-three quarterback in college football and Texas is really good in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage?
What if Jayden Daniels has a Joe Burrow-like jump this year with the talent on that LSU roster?
What if USC figures out how to field a competent defense?
What if J.J. McCarthy plays like a top-10 NFL Draft pick, and this is Michigan’s best team of this current run?
What if, dare to dream, Texas A&M figures everything out?
What if Penn State’s Drew Allar wins the Heisman Trophy?

Every season in the last decade, the national champion has come from a small group of teams that can be easily identified by looking at the blue-chip ratio. Maybe it will turn out to be Ohio State, Alabama or, most likely, Georgia yet again this year.

But it’s June and it’s fun to dream that this sport isn’t predetermined and boring. For that cause, I’m willing to consider that this may be the year someone new has a chance to actually do it. Because for all that stars matter, they are not the only thing that equates to national championships. Coaching, quarterback play, luck with injuries, team chemistry, development … all of it matters, too.

Will someone surprise us this year?

(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)

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